Training Legal Fact-Finders to Recognize Probabilistic Fallacies
An experiment was conducted to investigate the extent to which training in Bayesian thinking helps lawyers to recognize probabilistic fallacies in reasoning about legal evidence. The study showed that a limited amount of training (5 h) led to a significant improvement. However, some probabilistic fallacies emerged as more deceptive than others. The inversion fallacies (true-positive inversion and
