The Cost of Fence-Sitting: A counterfactual analysis of Ukraine’s non-integration with the EU
This paper provides an estimate of the export flows that would have emerged from Ukraine to the European Union (EU) had Ukraine integrated with the EU. Using the 2004 enlargement of the EU as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper employs the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) to estimate the counterfactual Ukrainian export flows to the EU. The results from the SCM shows that the aggregate export flow
