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Sensitivity analysis consists of an integral and important validatory check of a computer simulation model before the code is used in performing any kind of analysis operation. The present paper demonstrates the use of a relatively new method and tool for conducting global sensitivity analysis (GSA) for environmental models, providing simultaneously the first GSA study of the widely used 1d soil-v

The LPJ terrestrial carbon isotope model, which includes isotopic fractionation of 13C during assimilation and a full description of the isotopic terrestrial carbon cycle, has been used to calculate the atmosphere-biosphere exchange flux of CO2 and its δ13C for the years 1901 to 1998. A transient, spatially explicit data set of C4 crops and tropical C4 pastures has been compiled. In combination wi

The current and future strength of the terrestrial carbon sink has a crucial influence on the expected climate warming on Earth. Usually, Earth Observation (EO) by its very nature focusses on diagnosing the current state of the planet. However, it is possible to use EO products in data assimilation systems to improve not only the diagnosis of the current state, but also the accuracy of future pred

The paper presents a feasibility study for a Climate Prediction Data Assimilation System following the methodological approach of the Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation System (CCDAS). The usefulness of accurate gradient information for estimating process parameters of the spectral atmospheric circulation model PUMA on climate time-scales is investigated. Pseudo observations of the long-term mean surf

One of the major advantages of carbon cycle data assimilation is the possibility to estimate carbon fluxes with uncertainties in a prognostic mode, that is beyond the time period of carbon dioxide (CO2) observations. The carbon cycle data assimilation system is built around the Biosphere Energy Transfer Hydrology Scheme (BETHY) model, coupled to the atmospheric transport model TM2. It uses about 2

Understanding the carbon dynamics of the terrestrial biosphere during climate fluctuations is a prerequisite for any reliable modeling of the climate-carbon cycle feedback. We drive a terrestrial vegetation model with observed climate data to show that most of the fluctuations in atmospheric CO2 are consistent with the modeled shift in the balance between carbon uptake by terrestrial plants and ca

We quantify the risks of climate-induced changes in key ecosystem processes during the 21st century by forcing a dynamic global vegetation model with multiple scenarios from 16 climate models and mapping the proportions of model runs showing forest/nonforest shifts or exceedance of natural variability in wildfire frequency and freshwater supply. Our analysis does not assign probabilities to scenar

This chapter uses the mass-conservation equations for CO2 and its isotopomers 13CO2 and CO18O that can be used to infer globally biospheric and oceanic net fluxes in the case of 18C, and gross terrestrial biospheric fluxes in the case of 18O. The quantitative use of atmospheric measurements of 13C and 18O in CO2 to better constrain those fluxes requires knowledge of various processes specific to e

We present a prototype of a Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation System (CCDAS), which is composed of a terrestrial biosphere model (BETHY) coupled to an atmospheric transport model (TM2), corresponding derivative codes and a derivative-based optimisation routine. In calibration mode, we use first and second derivatives to estimate model parameters and their uncertainties from atmospheric observations a

This paper presents the space-time distribution of terrestrial carbon fluxes for the period 1979-1999 generated by a terrestrial carbon cycle data assimilation system (CCDAS). CCDAS is based around the Biosphere Energy Transfer Hydrology model. We assimilate satellite observations of photosynthetically active radiation and atmospheric CO2 concentration observations in a two-step process. The contr

The response of atmospheric CO2 and climate to the reconstructed variability in solar irradiance and radiative forcing by volcanoes over the last millennium is examined by applying a coupled physical-biogeochemical climate model that includes the Lund-Potsdam-Jena dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ-DGVM) and a simplified analogue of a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. The model

Abrupt climatic changes have occurred several times in the past, leading to large-scale modifications of vegetation patterns with important consequences for the global carbon cycle. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM) constitute an advanced tool for reconstructing past or predicting future shifts in vegetation distributions in response to climatic change on a global scale. The Lund-Potsdam-Jen

The response of a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model to insolation representative of 6000 years ago has been studied with a set of 1000-year quasi-equilibrium simulations. Comparison with similar experiments with an uncoupled atmosphere general circulation model demonstrates the importance of an interactive ocean for the climate signal. The model simulates an intensification of the

We present a bottom-up approach to simulate the terrestriál isotopic carbon variations using the Lund-Postsdam-Jena dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ-DGVM). LPJ is extended to include isotopic fractionation of 13C at the leaf level during assimilation and includes a full isotopic terrestrial carbon cycle. The model thus allows a quantitative analysis of the net biosphere exchange of CO2 and 13C

Ice core records are commonly used to infer information about past variability of CO2 fluxes. Because of processes involved in enclosing this air in ice, ice core records are a smoothed representation of the actual past atmospheric variations. As such, there is a limit to how much information ice core measurements can contain about flux variability on short timescales. With a numerical model of th

Bokanmälan av (1) Peter Mattis: Analyzing the Chinese Military. A Review Essay and Resource Guide on the People’s Liberation Army [2015] och (2) Joe McReynolds (red): China’s Evolving Military Strategy [2016]

How do we perceive voices coming from different spatial locations, and how is this affected by emotion? The current study probed the interplay between space and emotion during voice perception. Thirty participants listened to nonverbal vocalizations coming from different locations around the head (left vs. right; front vs. back), and differing in valence (neutral, positive [amusement] or negative

In the degrowth literature, maximum caps on wealth and/or income are frequently mentioned among the policy instruments that could support transitions towards ecologically and socially sustainable societies. Yet an in-depth discussion of concrete policy proposals has yet to be initiated. To facilitate such a discussion, the present paper reviews several proposals for placing caps on wealth and/or i

Fetal and neonatal alloimmune thrombocytopenia (FNAIT) may result in severe bleeding, particularly fetal and neonatal intracranial haemorrhage (ICH). As a result, FNAIT requires prompt identification and treatment; subsequent pregnancies need close surveillance and management. An international panel convened to develop evidence-based recommendations for diagnosis and management of FNAIT. A rigorou