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Where: Kärret, Ecology Building, Sölvegatan 37 When: Monday February 29th, 17—19 Drop in Bring a laptop with R and JAGS installed (or do it there) Bayesian modelling in JAGS An initative by Pufendorf Advanced Study Group on Calculating and Communicating Uncertainty Bayesian Analysis for curious learners Tutorial and discussion led by Ullrika Sahlin (CEC) Further info: Ullrika.Sahlin@cec.lu.se
https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/files/2016/02/Bayestutorial29feb.pdf - 2024-11-01
December 2016 The Society for Risk Analysis SRA Europe Nordic Chapter Second Annual Meeting: Where are we and where are we going? Randa Kachef, SRA News Editor All photos by Randa Kachef Risk practitioners and academics from around the Nordic-Baltic region met in Gothenburg from November 14-15 for the Second Annual Meeting of the SRA Europe Nordic Chapter. At the meeting, participants experienced
https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/files/2016/11/Nordic_SRA_Meeting_gbg2016.pdf - 2024-11-01
Likaantuneita lintuja ja kadonneita katkoja – öljyonnettomuuden vaikutukset meriluontoon Sakari Kuikka & Fem group Head of Fisheries and Environmental Management group (FEM), Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Finland, Email: sakari.kuikka@helsinki.fi Learning chains in oil spill risk analysis Lund University 29.3.2017 http://www.helsinki.fi/university/ http://www.helsin
https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/files/2017/02/BN-Workshop-Sakari-Kuikka.pdf - 2024-11-01
Small data and conflicting information What is needed to get Bayesian Networks robust to weaknesses in knowledge? Ullrika Sahlin, Centre of Environmental and Climate Research Lund University, Sweden Ullrika.Sahlin@cec.lu.se http://www.cec.lu.se/ullrika-sahlin mailto:Ullrika.Sahlin@cec.lu.se http://www.cec.lu.se/ullrika-sahlin Abstract Also the sun has its spots. Bayesian Networks are useful, but h
https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/files/2017/02/BN-Workshop-Ullrika-Sahlin-1.pdf - 2024-11-01
BNs, adaptive managment2 Bayesian tools to meet the challenges of uncertainty, climate change and integrating molecular toxicology to population management Wayne G. Landis Institute of Environmental Toxicology, Huxley College of the Environment Western Washington University, Bellingham, Washington USA Looking ahead-‐ Introduction to the use of Bayesian net
https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/files/2017/02/BN-Workshop-Wayne-Landis.pdf - 2024-11-01
Lund kickoff-2 Wayne G. Landis Institute of Environmental Toxicology, Western Washington University Bellingham, Washington Introduction to ecological risk assessment, the use of Bayesian networks and the analysis of uncertainty How about a story? • I has been a twenty-‐one year journey to get to this point in the development of regional risk assessm
https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/files/2017/02/BN_lecture_kickoff_Landis.pdf - 2024-11-01
Small data and conflicting information Bayesian Networks Decision analysis Ullrika Sahlin, Centre of Environmental and Climate Research Lund University, Sweden Ullrika.Sahlin@cec.lu.se http://www.cec.lu.se/ullrika-sahlin mailto:Ullrika.Sahlin@cec.lu.se http://www.cec.lu.se/ullrika-sahlin Recipe of a decision • Agents – decision makers • Their values • Decision alternatives • An idea of what is a g
https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/files/2017/02/BN_lecture_part2_sahlin.pdf - 2024-11-01
Small data and conflicting information Using expert's knowledge in Bayesian analysis Ullrika Sahlin, Centre of Environmental and Climate Research Lund University, Sweden Ullrika.Sahlin@cec.lu.se http://www.cec.lu.se/ullrika-sahlin mailto:Ullrika.Sahlin@cec.lu.se http://www.cec.lu.se/ullrika-sahlin Theory Data EK Theory Data EK Theory Data EK T Data EK European Food Safety Agency (EFSA) Plant Healt
https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/files/2017/03/Sahlin_BayesatLund2017_toweb.pdf - 2024-11-01
A mini-conference in Bayesian analysis at Lund University Room MA7, in the Maths annex building, Sölvegatan 20, Lund 20 April 2017 http://maths.lu.se/bayeslund2017 Sponsored by BECC and COMPUTE http://www.becc.lu.se/ http://cbbp.thep.lu.se/compute/ http://maths.lu.se/bayeslund2017 http://www.becc.lu.se/ http://cbbp.thep.lu.se/compute http://www.becc.lu.se/ http://cbbp.thep.lu.se/compute/ Program,
https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/files/2017/03/programus.pdf - 2024-11-01
Small data and conflicting information The importance of considering extreme and rare events in environmental management Ullrika Sahlin, Centre of Environmental and Climate Research Lund University, Sweden Ullrika.Sahlin@cec.lu.se http://www.cec.lu.se/ullrika-sahlin mailto:Ullrika.Sahlin@cec.lu.se http://www.cec.lu.se/ullrika-sahlin Now Train departs Time Now Train departs Time I leave the office
https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/files/2017/05/Sahlin_docent_final.pdf - 2024-11-01
PowerPoint-presentation KORTKURS FRAMTIDSVECKAN 2019 SAHLIN OCH KNAGGÅRD Och en osäker framtid är vår Hur troligt är det att det regnar på fredag? 1. Hur stor är chansen att det händer? ____ % 2. Föreställ dig att du har ”testat det regnar” i flera försök – hur många gånger har du testat för att komma upp till det du nyss svarade? Regn på fredag (%) 0 25 50 75 100 KORTKURS FRAMTIDSVECKAN 2019 SAHL
https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/files/2019/09/Och-en-os%C3%A4ker-framtid-%C3%A4r-v%C3%A5r-Sahlin-Knagg%C3%A5rd.pdf - 2024-11-01
Guess your time in Lundaloppet Predictive Challenge 2019 – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis Guess your time in Lundaloppet Predictive Challenge 2019 Länk till denna sida på svenska We are curious to know how good people are in being uncertain. To test this, we asked participants of the running race Lundaloppet (Lund May 4th
https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/lundaloppet-predictive-challenge-2019-eng/ - 2024-11-01
DSC_0042 – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis DSC_0042 October 4, 2019 host This entry was posted in Write a comment Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked * Comment Name * Email * Website Menu Close about this blog Accessibility statement Follow us
https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/osakerhetsexperiment-pa-forskarfredag/dsc_0042/ - 2024-11-01
Which theory gets the highest probability to be the true one? – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis Which theory gets the highest probability to be the true one? September 30, 2019 host This entry was posted in Write a comment Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked * Comment Name * Email * Website
https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/osakerhetsexperiment-pa-forskarfredag/spring/ - 2024-11-01
Experts judgements – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis Experts judgements October 13, 2018 host This entry was posted in Write a comment Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked * Comment Name * Email * Website Menu Close about this blog Accessibility statement Follow us
https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/qup/brett/ - 2024-11-01
Results from Lundaloppet Predictive Challenge 2014 – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis Results from Lundaloppet Predictive Challenge 2014 What does it mean to make predictions? Why is it advantageous, if not mandatory, to make predictions in terms of probability distributions? Is a prediction with a wide distribution automati
https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/results-from-lundaloppet-predictive-challenge-2014/ - 2024-11-01
The science of decision making in science – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis The science of decision making in science Jan 13th 2015 we had workshop on the science of decision making in research The purpose of the workshop was to share and discuss scientific methods to integrate decision problems into research. An ambition i
https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/the-science-of-decision-making-in-science/ - 2024-11-01
Two aspects on reliability – epistemic risk and safety – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis Two aspects on reliability – epistemic risk and safety Last week was devoted to reliability in two aspects. Niklas Vareman successfully defended his thesis on Epistemic Risk, which in one of his explanations of it is the risk of “missin
https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/two-aspects-on-reliability-epistemic-risk-and-safety/ - 2024-11-01
Äter pantersniglarna upp mina kompostmaskar? – Fråga en Biolog Hoppa till huvudinnehåll Välkommen Svar Möt våra experter Sök Sök Stäng Meny Meny Fråga en Biolog Allt du någonsin undrat om hur naturen fungerar Äter pantersniglarna upp mina kompostmaskar? Pantersnigel, Limax maximus , är en av våra största landsniglar. Till skillnad från en del andra sniglar äter pantersnigeln mest dött växtermateri
https://fragaenbiolog.blogg.lu.se/ater-pantersniglarna-upp-mina-kompostmaskar/ - 2024-11-01
Behöver någon växt månljus för att må bra? – Fråga en Biolog Hoppa till huvudinnehåll Välkommen Svar Möt våra experter Sök Sök Stäng Meny Meny Fråga en Biolog Allt du någonsin undrat om hur naturen fungerar Behöver någon växt månljus för att må bra? Månljus kan vara nog så starkt och bidra verkligen till nattens trolldom. Men har månljuset någon viktig biologisk funktion? Kan växter växa lite extr
https://fragaenbiolog.blogg.lu.se/behover-nagon-vaxt-manljus-for-att-ma-bra/ - 2024-11-01
