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EFSAs treatment of uncertainty under trial – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis EFSAs treatment of uncertainty under trial The way uncertainty is treated in risk assessment is under scrutiny. There is a need for this since we today face more complex problems and need to take into account possible risks for which knowledge is w

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/efsas-treatment-of-uncertainty-under-trial/ - 2026-01-11

Solution Sheet Gero Walter Lund University, 15.12.2015 ###################################################################### # Solutions for exercise sheet on generalized Bayesian inference # # with sets of conjugate priors for dealing with prior-data conflict # ###################################################################### Exercise 1 f(p | s) ∝ f(s | p)f(p) (1) ∝ ps(1− p)n−spα (0)−1 (1−

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/files/2015/12/solutions-1.pdf - 2026-01-11

Bayesian Inference and Prior-Data Conflict / Bayesian Inference and Prior-Data Conflict Gero Walter Eindhoven University of Technology, Eindhoven, NL g.m.walter@tue.nl 2015-12-15 g.m.walter@tue.nl 1/20 / Bayesian Inference https://xkcd.com/1132 https://xkcd.com/1132 1/20 / Bayesian Inference https://xkcd.com/1132 https://xkcd.com/1132 2/20 / Bayesian Inference expert info + data → complete picture

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/files/2015/12/talk-lund.pdf - 2026-01-11

Graduate course in Risk, uncertainty and decision making Fall 2019 – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis Graduate course in Risk, uncertainty and decision making Fall 2019 This is a research-oriented introductory course in risk which gives an introduction into different scientific perspectives on risk with international outlook

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/graduate-course-in-risk-uncertainty-and-decision-making-fall-2019/ - 2026-01-11

It is time to reconsider how we think about risk – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis It is time to reconsider how we think about risk Risk is something that concerns us all. Risk has become an integrated part of decision making and it is acknowledged that decisions should be informed by risks. This means that a decision maker

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/it-is-time-to-reconsider-how-we-think-about-risk/ - 2026-01-11

Osäkerhetsexperiment på ForskarFredag – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis Osäkerhetsexperiment på ForskarFredag Vi gjorde experiment som förklarar lärande och beslut under osäkerhet för gymnasieelever och besökande under ForskarFredag den 28e och 29e september på Vattenhallen i Lund.   Dice – the perfect illustration of proba

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/osakerhetsexperiment-pa-forskarfredag/ - 2026-01-11

Program for the 6th version of Bayes@Lund is now online – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis Program for the 6th version of Bayes@Lund is now online Bayes@Lund 2019 – a Mini-conference on Bayesian Methods at Lund University, 7th of May, 2019 You are welcome to participate in the sixth edition of Bayes@Lund! The purpose of this

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/program-for-the-6th-version-of-bayeslund-is-now-online/ - 2026-01-11

Quantifying uncertainty integrating expert judgement and data – tutorial – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis Quantifying uncertainty integrating expert judgement and data – tutorial Ullrika travelled all the way to Liverpool to give a tutorial at the BayesDays. Nice event. The material for the tutorial in on github:  https://

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/quantifying-uncertainty-integrating-expert-judgement-and-data-tutorial/ - 2026-01-11

Tutorial on quantifying epistemic uncertainty by probability – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis Tutorial on quantifying epistemic uncertainty by probability This is a 3 hour tutorial where I (Ullrika Sahlin) talk about why quantification of epistemic uncertainty by probability is important and useful to master. I present two

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/qup/ - 2026-01-11

Risk is crisp – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis Risk is crisp All sessions are filled but there is a possibility to submit abstracts for posters until November 8th. A short version of the program can be accessed here  Program_nov11 A longer version containing all abstracts is  fullprogramriskconf  (version Nov 11th) Check o

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/risk-is-crisp/ - 2026-01-11

RISKUT – a conference for us teaching risk – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis RISKUT – a conference for us teaching risk RISKUT is a conference organised by the Swedish society for risk sciences (Riskkollegiet). This year (2020) it will be held online on September 22nd. The conference is held in Swedish. In 2021 we plan to h

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/riskut2020/ - 2026-01-11

Congratulations to Ivette for a successful mid-term PhD seminar – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis Congratulations to Ivette for a successful mid-term PhD seminar Robust analysis of uncertainty in scientific assessments This was the topic of the mid-term seminar for PhD student Ivette Raices Cruz (PhD student in Environmenta

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/robust-analysis-seminar/ - 2026-01-11

Studentprojekt: Tuggummin som en indikator för nedskräpning i urbana miljöer – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis Studentprojekt: Tuggummin som en indikator för nedskräpning i urbana miljöer Studenter sökes för ett projekt under våren 2017 Detta projekt går ut på att ta reda på hur förekomst av tuggummin förhåller sig till för

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/studentprojekt-tuggummin-som-en-indikator-for-nedskrapning-i-urbana-miljoer/ - 2026-01-11

Uncertainty at ECORISK2050 – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis Uncertainty at ECORISK2050 On June 30th 2020 I gave a MOOC lecture at the ECORISK 2050 training network about How to become a master of being uncertain in scientific assessments. My intention was to talk about the need to consider and communicate uncertainty in sc

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/uncertainty-at-ecorisk2050/ - 2026-01-11

UnEviL at the Lund Future Week – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis UnEviL at the Lund Future Week This year we have two activities at Lund Future week focusing on how to deal with the fact that the future is uncertain.  Tuesday (Oct 15) Ullrika will together with Åsa Knaggård (political science) give a crash course on how to

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/unevil-at-the-lund-future-week/ - 2026-01-11

Workshop: Introduction to Bayesian Networks for risk and impact assessment to support decision making – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis Workshop: Introduction to Bayesian Networks for risk and impact assessment to support decision making The aim of is workshop was to introduce Bayesian (Belief) Networks to students and rese

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/workshop-introduction-to-bayesian-networks-for-risk-and-impact-assessment-to-support-decision-making/ - 2026-01-11

Är asken hona, hane, eller både och? – Fråga en Biolog Hoppa till huvudinnehåll Välkommen Svar Möt våra experter Sök Sök Stäng Meny Meny Fråga en Biolog Allt du någonsin undrat om hur naturen fungerar Är asken hona, hane, eller både och? Ask, Fraxinus_excelsior , kan kombinera könen på olika sätt. Den kan vara antingen hona, hane, eller tvåkönad. Hittar man en ask med frukter, är det en hona eller

https://fragaenbiolog.blogg.lu.se/ar-asken-hona-hane-eller-bade-och/ - 2026-01-11

Är det en varg som varit här? – Fråga en Biolog Hoppa till huvudinnehåll Välkommen Svar Möt våra experter Sök Sök Stäng Meny Meny Fråga en Biolog Allt du någonsin undrat om hur naturen fungerar Är det en varg som varit här? Den grova strukturen på spillningen, liksom det övervägande inslaget av hår, gör att vi håller med i vår frågeställares bedömning att det kan vara en varg som varit på besök. S

https://fragaenbiolog.blogg.lu.se/ar-det-en-varg-som-varit-har/ - 2026-01-11

andreasnord – Sida 3 – Fråga en Biolog Hoppa till huvudinnehåll Välkommen Svar Möt våra experter Sök Sök Stäng Meny Meny Fråga en Biolog Allt du någonsin undrat om hur naturen fungerar andreasnord Sida 3 / 146 december 2, 2025 | andreasnord Har kvinnor verkligen sämre lokalsinne än män? Finns det några biologiska belägg för att förmågan till lokalsinne är olika mellan män och kvinnor? Jag har själ

https://fragaenbiolog.blogg.lu.se/author/andreasnord/page/3/ - 2026-01-11

Blått märke i en nyfallen ek – vad kan det vara? – Fråga en Biolog Hoppa till huvudinnehåll Välkommen Svar Möt våra experter Sök Sök Stäng Meny Meny Fråga en Biolog Allt du någonsin undrat om hur naturen fungerar Blått märke i en nyfallen ek – vad kan det vara? Ja, vad är det som har drabbat eken, egentligen? Något så oskyldigt som en duva i nöd, eller är det kanske någon som har spikat i trädet i

https://fragaenbiolog.blogg.lu.se/blatt-marke-i-en-nyfallen-ek-vad-kan-det-vara/ - 2026-01-11