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NAMV001 Bayesiansk analys och beslutsteori Date 10 March 2015 Reg. Nr. U 2015/86 SYLLABUS Syllabus for the course Bayesian Analysis and Decision Theory, NAMV001 Swedish title: Bayesiansk analys och beslutsteori The course syllabus was confirmed by the Faculty board for graduate studies on 17 March 2015. The course is in the third cycle and amounts to 3 credits This is a translation of the course s

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/files/2015/03/NAMV001-Eng.pdf - 2024-11-05

- a summer school at Lund University 2015 This course is organized in cooperation with the research school ClimBEco Contact and info ullrika.sahlin at cec.lu.se Background to the course Bayesian methods are becoming more used in research. Bayesian methods are used for inference, modelling of complex data, model calibration, integration of multiple sources of information, combination of data with e

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/files/2015/03/Summerschool_2.pdf - 2024-11-05

The Future of Risk Analysis in the Nordic Countries Keynotes: David Gee • Åsa Boholm • Tomas Öberg • Terje Aven • Johannes Persson • Ragnar Löfstedt Where: Elite Hotel, Ideon Lund, Sweden When: 16-17 November Time: Lunch-to-Lunch Information and registration visit www.lucram.lu.se/event/nordic- chapter-risk-conference The Nordic Chapter of SRA Europe and Lund University Centre of Risk Assessment a

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/files/2015/10/flyer.pdf - 2024-11-05

Where: Kärret, Ecology Building, Sölvegatan 37 When: Monday February 29th, 17—19 Drop in Bring a laptop with R and JAGS installed (or do it there) Bayesian modelling in JAGS An initative by Pufendorf Advanced Study Group on Calculating and Communicating Uncertainty Bayesian Analysis for curious learners Tutorial and discussion led by Ullrika Sahlin (CEC) Further info: Ullrika.Sahlin@cec.lu.se

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/files/2016/02/Bayestutorial29feb.pdf - 2024-11-05

December 2016 The Society for Risk Analysis SRA Europe Nordic Chapter Second Annual Meeting: Where are we and where are we going? Randa Kachef, SRA News Editor All photos by Randa Kachef Risk practitioners and academics from around the Nordic-Baltic region met in Gothenburg from November 14-15 for the Second Annual Meeting of the SRA Europe Nordic Chapter. At the meeting, participants experienced

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/files/2016/11/Nordic_SRA_Meeting_gbg2016.pdf - 2024-11-05

Likaantuneita lintuja ja kadonneita katkoja – öljyonnettomuuden vaikutukset meriluontoon Sakari Kuikka & Fem group Head of Fisheries and Environmental Management group (FEM), Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Finland, Email: sakari.kuikka@helsinki.fi Learning chains in oil spill risk analysis Lund University 29.3.2017 http://www.helsinki.fi/university/ http://www.helsin

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/files/2017/02/BN-Workshop-Sakari-Kuikka.pdf - 2024-11-05

Small data and conflicting information What is needed to get Bayesian Networks robust to weaknesses in knowledge? Ullrika Sahlin, Centre of Environmental and Climate Research Lund University, Sweden Ullrika.Sahlin@cec.lu.se http://www.cec.lu.se/ullrika-sahlin mailto:Ullrika.Sahlin@cec.lu.se http://www.cec.lu.se/ullrika-sahlin Abstract Also the sun has its spots. Bayesian Networks are useful, but h

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/files/2017/02/BN-Workshop-Ullrika-Sahlin-1.pdf - 2024-11-05

BNs, adaptive managment2 Bayesian  tools  to  meet  the  challenges  of   uncertainty,  climate  change  and  integrating   molecular  toxicology  to  population   management Wayne  G.  Landis Institute  of  Environmental  Toxicology,  Huxley  College  of  the  Environment Western  Washington  University,  Bellingham,  Washington  USA Looking  ahead-­‐ Introduction  to  the  use  of  Bayesian  net

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/files/2017/02/BN-Workshop-Wayne-Landis.pdf - 2024-11-05

Lund kickoff-2 Wayne  G.  Landis Institute  of  Environmental  Toxicology,  Western  Washington  University Bellingham,  Washington Introduction  to  ecological  risk  assessment,  the  use   of  Bayesian  networks  and  the  analysis  of   uncertainty How  about  a  story? • I  has  been  a  twenty-­‐one  year  journey  to  get  to   this  point  in  the  development  of  regional  risk   assessm

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/files/2017/02/BN_lecture_kickoff_Landis.pdf - 2024-11-05

Small data and conflicting information Bayesian Networks Decision analysis Ullrika Sahlin, Centre of Environmental and Climate Research Lund University, Sweden Ullrika.Sahlin@cec.lu.se http://www.cec.lu.se/ullrika-sahlin mailto:Ullrika.Sahlin@cec.lu.se http://www.cec.lu.se/ullrika-sahlin Recipe of a decision • Agents – decision makers • Their values • Decision alternatives • An idea of what is a g

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/files/2017/02/BN_lecture_part2_sahlin.pdf - 2024-11-05

Small data and conflicting information Using expert's knowledge in Bayesian analysis Ullrika Sahlin, Centre of Environmental and Climate Research Lund University, Sweden Ullrika.Sahlin@cec.lu.se http://www.cec.lu.se/ullrika-sahlin mailto:Ullrika.Sahlin@cec.lu.se http://www.cec.lu.se/ullrika-sahlin Theory Data EK Theory Data EK Theory Data EK T Data EK European Food Safety Agency (EFSA) Plant Healt

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/files/2017/03/Sahlin_BayesatLund2017_toweb.pdf - 2024-11-05

A mini-conference in Bayesian analysis at Lund University Room MA7, in the Maths annex building, Sölvegatan 20, Lund 20 April 2017 http://maths.lu.se/bayeslund2017 Sponsored by BECC and COMPUTE http://www.becc.lu.se/ http://cbbp.thep.lu.se/compute/ http://maths.lu.se/bayeslund2017 http://www.becc.lu.se/ http://cbbp.thep.lu.se/compute http://www.becc.lu.se/ http://cbbp.thep.lu.se/compute/ Program,

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/files/2017/03/programus.pdf - 2024-11-05

Small data and conflicting information The importance of considering extreme and rare events in environmental management Ullrika Sahlin, Centre of Environmental and Climate Research Lund University, Sweden Ullrika.Sahlin@cec.lu.se http://www.cec.lu.se/ullrika-sahlin mailto:Ullrika.Sahlin@cec.lu.se http://www.cec.lu.se/ullrika-sahlin Now Train departs Time Now Train departs Time I leave the office

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/files/2017/05/Sahlin_docent_final.pdf - 2024-11-05

PowerPoint-presentation KORTKURS FRAMTIDSVECKAN 2019 SAHLIN OCH KNAGGÅRD Och en osäker framtid är vår Hur troligt är det att det regnar på fredag? 1. Hur stor är chansen att det händer? ____ % 2. Föreställ dig att du har ”testat det regnar” i flera försök – hur många gånger har du testat för att komma upp till det du nyss svarade? Regn på fredag (%) 0 25 50 75 100 KORTKURS FRAMTIDSVECKAN 2019 SAHL

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/files/2019/09/Och-en-os%C3%A4ker-framtid-%C3%A4r-v%C3%A5r-Sahlin-Knagg%C3%A5rd.pdf - 2024-11-05

DSC_0042 – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis DSC_0042 October 4, 2019 host This entry was posted in Write a comment Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked * Comment Name * Email * Website Menu Close about this blog Accessibility statement Follow us

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/osakerhetsexperiment-pa-forskarfredag/dsc_0042/ - 2024-11-05

Which theory gets the highest probability to be the true one? – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis Which theory gets the highest probability to be the true one? September 30, 2019 host This entry was posted in Write a comment Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked * Comment Name * Email * Website

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/osakerhetsexperiment-pa-forskarfredag/spring/ - 2024-11-05

Results from Lundaloppet Predictive Challenge 2014 – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis Results from Lundaloppet Predictive Challenge 2014 What does it mean to make predictions? Why is it advantageous, if not mandatory, to make predictions in terms of probability distributions? Is a prediction with a wide distribution automati

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/results-from-lundaloppet-predictive-challenge-2014/ - 2024-11-05

The science of decision making in science – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis The science of decision making in science Jan 13th 2015 we had workshop on the science of decision making in research The purpose of the workshop was to share and discuss scientific methods to integrate decision problems into research. An ambition i

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/the-science-of-decision-making-in-science/ - 2024-11-05

Äter pantersniglarna upp mina kompostmaskar? – Fråga en Biolog Hoppa till huvudinnehåll Välkommen Svar Möt våra experter Sök Sök Stäng Meny Meny Fråga en Biolog Allt du någonsin undrat om hur naturen fungerar Äter pantersniglarna upp mina kompostmaskar? Pantersnigel, Limax maximus , är en av våra största landsniglar. Till skillnad från en del andra sniglar äter pantersnigeln mest dött växtermateri

https://fragaenbiolog.blogg.lu.se/ater-pantersniglarna-upp-mina-kompostmaskar/ - 2024-11-05

Behöver någon växt månljus för att må bra? – Fråga en Biolog Hoppa till huvudinnehåll Välkommen Svar Möt våra experter Sök Sök Stäng Meny Meny Fråga en Biolog Allt du någonsin undrat om hur naturen fungerar Behöver någon växt månljus för att må bra? Månljus kan vara nog så starkt och bidra verkligen till nattens trolldom. Men har månljuset någon viktig biologisk funktion? Kan växter växa lite extr

https://fragaenbiolog.blogg.lu.se/behover-nagon-vaxt-manljus-for-att-ma-bra/ - 2024-11-05